Marauders v Trolls

[gull2112]

When building an Orc army the two heavy lifting units players have a choice of are Marauders(367 points) and Trolls(406points). Trolls are large, fearsome, and move 5" vs Marauders 3.5". However, when the two units engage the resulting superiority is noteworthy, if not surprising, with the Marauders winning 2/3 of the time.
I tried to line the two columns up and finally gave up, but you can figure it out.

Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   4.6   66.4%   25.6%   8.0%   13.2%   40.5%   28.5%   61.2%

[Kevin]

Did you factor in Troll regeneration somehow?

[gull2112]

I had not.
to simulate I added 2 green and 2 red boxes, assuming 2 extra turns turns of combat at each color:
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   5.1   49.0%   41.8%   9.2%   27.5%   24.5%   38.0%   54.4%

Adding 3 boxes of each:
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   5.4   40.2%   49.6%   10.2%   32.2%   18.6%   42.4%   48.4%

And finally, adding 3 green and 2 red (assuming they will last a turn longer in the green than red):
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   5.3   38.2%   52.7%   9.1%   37.1%   18.9%   43.0%   43.8%

[gull2112]

I don't know why, but the Trolls do better if I only give them 2 extra red boxes instead of three.

[Hannibal]

I'm curious, what happens if you give the Trolls and impact hit?

[gull2112]

Here is an impact hit and two extra green plus two extra red to simulate regeneration
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   4.8   40.9%   50.8%   8.3%   32.8%   20.1%   41.5%   45.3%
Here is same numbers without regeneration
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   5.1   49.0%   41.8%   9.2%   27.5%   24.5%   38.0%   54.4%

I think the impact hit is really effective on Trolls as their hits have seven power so it is like just giving them an extra wound on the charge.

[RushAss]

When building an Orc army the two heavy lifting units players have a choice of are Marauders(367 points) and Trolls(406points).....

What about the Axemen?  Mike, I'm so ashamed of you...

[gull2112]

Actually, in one of my main builds for Kevin's Money, I can make it either shooty with a bombchucker, or if the terrain makes that undesirable I can interchange it with an Axemen.

I am assuming the nomenclature "Axemen, Spearmen, Swordsmen" is used in the imperative case, as in "These are to "axe" men. Otherwise they should be "AxeOrcs, SpearOrcs, SwordOrcs." Even better would be to put a Smeagol twist and call them ...Orcs's.

BTW, thank you for bearing my shame, I got your back too.

[Hannibal]

I had not.
to simulate I added 2 green and 2 red boxes, assuming 2 extra turns turns of combat at each color:
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   5.1   49.0%   41.8%   9.2%   27.5%   24.5%   38.0%   54.4%

Adding 3 boxes of each:
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   5.4   40.2%   49.6%   10.2%   32.2%   18.6%   42.4%   48.4%

And finally, adding 3 green and 2 red (assuming they will last a turn longer in the green than red):
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   5.3   38.2%   52.7%   9.1%   37.1%   18.9%   43.0%   43.8%

Are you calculating this with the Trolls regenerating every turn?  Using the regenerate every other turn (which I think is the better baseline because no change has been stamped that I know of), the best case scenario has the Trolls with +2G and +1R.  Worst case its +1G/+1R.  The best/worst case is who charges, the Marauders or the Trolls respectively.  The Trolls don't want to become engaged on their turn because then they have to go 2 turns of combat without any regeneration.

I'm curious, could you run the comparison at that level?


(Edit:  worth mentioning that Trolls vs Marauders isn't a terrible comparison at all.  The Trolls pay for that MC 5" which doesn't come into play here, but from what I've seen, bumping from MC 3.5" to 5" is ~10%, so the Trolls in this situation probably have about 360 pts spent on 'fighting stats.')

[gull2112]

Let's run the numbers.

2G 1R
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   5.2   48.3%   42.6%   9.1%   27.9%   25.7%   38.0%   51.1%

1G 1R
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   4.8   58.3%   33.1%   8.6%   20.0%   31.8%   31.8%   59.7%


I do have some reservations about using such low turn numbers, but ultimately the battle is over in 4 or 5 turns. Even adding three boxes of each the battle tends to run only 5 or 6 turns. Of course, a battle that tends to last four or more turns effectively neutralizes both units for the balance of the battle. I guess that is a different issue (that of running your heaviest units into each other) and is generally considered unwise play.

IF your intention is to win the battle on one part of the board before the rest of your line collapses, then you want to hit hardest, soonest, with the mostest. 5" MC Trolls have a lot going for them, especially if you flank them with Wolfriders. As always, with these number comparisons, you can't factor in all the variables. What you can do is get an idea of probablities and relative effectiveness of units before all the other considerations. This is the equivalent of having valid premises before you reach a conclusion.
At this point you key the Monty Python skit between the two british mavens Mrs. Premise and Mrs. Conclusion, discussing the relative merits of buying a piston engine for 2 quid.

[Hannibal]

I do have some reservations about using such low turn numbers, but ultimately the battle is over in 4 or 5 turns.

I don't think its way off base.  I think giving +2G/+2R for regeneration is best regeneration one could hope to get.  With my pen-and-paper, assuming nobody ever fails a rout check, the combat doesn't go for longer than 7 turns.  So think saying that the Trolls get either +2g/+1R or +1G/+2R isn't bad at all.  (I goofed previously and said the Trolls get +1G/+1R in the worst case.  That was incorrect).

Mind running the numbers of +2/+1 and +1/+2 with the impact hit?  Pretty sure we'll see similar numbers to the +2/+2 but I'm curious.

IF your intention is to win the battle on one part of the board before the rest of your line collapses, then you want to hit hardest, soonest, with the mostest. 5" MC Trolls have a lot going for them, especially if you flank them with Wolfriders. As always, with these number comparisons, you can't factor in all the variables. What you can do is get an idea of probablities and relative effectiveness of units before all the other considerations. This is the equivalent of having valid premises before you reach a conclusion.

Very true, and I wasn't trying to really draw conclusions, just stating that if you're isolating variables, you end up with a similar-points matchup.  As I discovered in my last go-round, the calculator is probably more accurate than the numbers I reached, but it doesn't sync up with my experience with big guys.  That could be that they're fine but feel wrong, could be I've been using them wrong, or it could be there's something not captured in the calculator (Command Cards, for example) that is a weakness.  Or it could be all three, but the point is that the calculator is a good starting point for a conversation.

[gull2112]

2g 1r
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   4.8   43.3%   48.7%   8.0%   32.3%   23.2%   39.5%   46.1%
1g 2r
Total Trials   Turn End   Unit 1 Win   Unit 2 Win   Both Rout/Die   Unit 1 Die   Unit 2 Die   Unit 1 Rout   Unit 2 Rout
1000   4.6   46.7%   43.7%   9.6%   25.5%   21.4%   39.9%   51.9%

[wariorpoet]

I prefer using Marauders over Trolls not for a stat reason. If your Maruders die you can say "There only a bunch of Orcs." If your Trolls die, you bemone them for weeks.

[Niko White]

BOTH HANDS IS FOR KILLIN'

Seriously how can you not play a card that has that flavor text over every other option ever.  One of my favorite things about Kingdoms is eventually being able to get core Marauders.

ALL THE HANDS ARE NECESSARY FOR THIS KILLING.

[RushAss]

You just gave me an idea for a fun thread.  Thanks Niko!